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Global Trends 2030 Alternative Worlds Pdf Download
bd40bc7c7a The question of rough-gauge probability is very important, because most climate scientists would very likely assign a far greater probability of much more rapid climate change, placing it in the 10-40% not-so-wild card range, if not a probable or near-certain development. Climate change will worsen the outlook for availability of these critical resources, as wet areas get wetter and dry areas get more so. Increasing erosion has led to a substantial loss of topsoil, reducing agricultural output and raising food prices. (p.4) In a likely tectonic shift, the US could become energy-independent. [Also see GFB Update newsletter for April 2012 on the emerging multipolar world.] The shift in national power may be overshadowed by an even more fundamental shift in the nature of power: enabled by communications technologies, power will shift toward multifaceted and amorphous networks that will form to influence state and global actions. The technology exists, but only a handful of commercial-scale CCS projects are currently operating. (p.25) The 450 Scenario examines actions necessary to achieve this goal, finding that almost four-fifths of the CO2 emissions allowable by 2035 are already locked in by existing power plants, factories, buildings, etc. (p.13) Particularly at risk are Chinas agricultural system and its ability to maintain strong economic development and foreign trade. Parts of Africa suffer the most, and a growing number of states fail. If monsoonal rains become increasingly erratic, there will likely be serious food shortages in the regions that depend on them.
Despite these prudent steps, Persian Gulf regimes will remain vulnerable to fluctuations in global energy markets and will face profound environmental stresses resulting from climate change in the coming decades. However, it appears that few if any climate scientists and environmental scientists are on this list, and UN and OECD reports are ignored. stringent building codes, retrofits, retirement of inefficient industrial facilities, support for smart grids). Emissions in the New Policies Scenario correspond to a long-term average global temperature increase of 3.6oC. iii) [Also see Lone Wolf Terrorism: Understanding the Growing Threat by Jeffrey D. Iraq stands to gain almost $5 trillion from oil exports through 2035. PublicationsIssue BriefsReportsArticlesBooks. (p.714) Our Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisisby former Vice President Al Gore (Rodale, Nov 2009, 416p; GFB Book of the Month, April 2010), reporting on more than 30 Solutions Summits of leading experts convened by Gore, on such topics as the climate change threat, the potential of concentrated solar thermal power, biomass, geothermal power (potentially the largest source of power in the US and world), forests and soils as carbon sinks, depleted soils enhanced by biochar, limits of CCS, energy efficiency improvements, smart grids, and more. Surely the threats of climate change deserve featuring in at least one scenario, and some mention in all.